Bitcoin RevisitedFollowing Weak Performance in Q4 2025
After Bitcoin's late-2025 correction while other risk assets held up, a look at the competing narratives that may explain the move and what they raise for long-term holders.
Tom Fletcher, CFACo-Founder & Chief Investment OfficerJanuary 3, 2026 · 1 min readBTC went down from historic highs near $126k and settled in a range below $90k. Interestingly, BTC corrected while other risk assets were holding up fine, particularly the Nasdaq 100. Gold, the competing debasement hedge to BTC was also setting all-time highs. There are several narratives that could explain this sudden deviation in the strength of BTC and its response to global liquidity and risk appetite:
- Changes in ownership with almost half of circulating supply moving from foundational crypto "Whales" to mainstream institutional holders. BTC did go mainstream. Institutional buyers employ what borders on market manipulation to create suitable conditions for accumulation of a new long-term asset. This is very similar to the price suppression that recently gave way in gold in silver.
- Bitcoin did lose some of its mystique as a decentralized asset with valuable network effect due to this evolution. Did that degrade its utility or is this a temporary setback that is almost over?
- Perhaps the utility and inevitability of BTC was over-hyped a bit? When nearly everyone says something must go up, it rarely does so without a few painful surprises along the way. The perma-bull sentiment has evaporated - that be more beneficial for BTC in the long run if this "store of value" use-case of BTC remains valid.
In short, BTC has had large price swings throughout its life. Most of the money is made from buying it when most others don't want to. Most money has been lost from jumping on the bandwagon late in a rally. My positive view on the case for Bitcoin remains intact, and I would be adding modestly to portfolios that do not hold any yet. Also looking for price action to support that institutional accumulation is done and this new group of holders is ready to let the price rise again.
Our perspective, January 3, 2026. The opinions here reflect market conditions at that time and may have changed.
Tom Fletcher brings more than two decades of institutional investment leadership to GenSphere, combining experience in portfolio management, investment implementation, and risk management with a disciplined understanding of how capital serves long-term objectives.
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